GPRS terminals are not yet appreciated as expected:
this means network operators have not yet been able to persuade
end users to upgrade, or to make GPRS data traffic.
The same will be with UMTS/3G terminals:
if popular services are not launched, the faster network
is not required for final users.
2001 was the first year when handset sales declined:
after years of handset sales growth, most users today own
a mobile phone which they like for what they use: voice calls
and SMS services. If no new appealing data services are
launched, decline will continue.
Network operators that are unprepared to offer popular services
for GPRS and 3G will loose most of the income from new data
services, and of course customers.
MMS services was launched, but the adoption of MMS is slow,
and market researches say that MMS alone are not enough
for mobile carriers to increase data traffic.
We believe in the success of mobile entertainment:
this is the niche market to be filled in USA and Europe in
the following years. We base this assumption on our Japanese
market experience, which is 2 years ahead of Europe in mobile
Java and mobile entertainment in general.
According to a study by ARC Group, the number of J2ME
compatible handhelds is estimated to be 421 millions in 2003,
and the study forecast 442 million Java entertainment users
globally in 2004. J2ME compatible handhelds
are expected to be 1 billion in 2006.
According to a study by the HPI Research Group, 72
percent of 16 - 45 year olds interviewed stated they would
like entertainment services available on their 3G terminals,
and that most of the interested people in 3G services are aged under 35.
Other studies predict that the revenue from logo and ringtones
downloads will decrease, to be replaced in 2005 by
a more popular Java games/utilities download.
The Japanese example: After a year from mass market
launch of the first J2ME devices in Japan, e-mails are sent
about 5 times a day (much like SMS in Europe), and phone calls
are a couple a day. Previously
downloaded J2ME games are played often in case of no network
field, when calls and internet can't be accessed.
NTT-DoComo declared that 63.4 percent
of people increased data communication bills after purchasing
a J2ME enabled device, still mantaining same level of
voice call bills.
Regarding the manufacturers, 68.8 percent of interviewed users
from Sony said they purchased 503i models because of i-appli
(J2ME) capabilities, while 75 percent of Fujitsu handsets
declared the same, beating the generic top answer "because
it's the latest model".